2032 Scenario Planning Workshop: Building a Regional Supply Chain for Energy Storage in Asia

Synopsis

Six Tables, Six Scenarios, Your Solutions

 

In this interactive session, delegates will be grouped and assigned one of six future scenarios shaping Asia’s role in the global energy storage supply chain. Each group will analyze the scenario and design a strategic response- covering local manufacturing, trade policies, materials security, and technology choices. Groups will then present back to the room, offering insight into how the region can remain resilient across multiple possible futures.

 

Group Output- Each group answers:

1. Your 2030 Vision: What does your country/region’s battery supply chain look like in this future?
2. Top 3 Actions: What must your government or industry do now to prepare?
3. Key Partners: Who do you need on your side (local, regional, or global)?

 

Scenario 1- Resource Crunch in India

Global prices for lithium, nickel, and cobalt have spiked. New environmental regulations have slowed mining permits, and material nationalism is rising. Indonesia has restricted nickel exports; Australia is prioritizing domestic supply.

Challenge: How can your country secure reliable, ethical raw material access? What’s the backup plan if prices don’t stabilize?

 

Scenario 2- Oversupply Shock

Gigafactories across Asia are running at 60% capacity. Regional competition has driven prices down, but many manufacturers are now struggling to survive. Margins are razor-thin and innovation is stagnating.

 

Challenge: How can your company differentiate? Should you consolidate, innovate, or shift focus to services, recycling, or next-gen chemistries?

 

Scenario 3- Local Content Laws & Regional Protectionism

New “Made-in-Asia” mandates require BESS developers to source 60–80% of battery components locally. Meanwhile, India, Vietnam, and Thailand have different compliance frameworks—fragmenting the regional market.

Challenge: Map out a localization plan: which parts of the value chain will you prioritize for domestic development, and what alliances do you need to build?

 

Scenario 4- The Tech Disruption (Sodium-ion & Flow Break Through)

Sodium-ion and iron-air technologies have become cost-competitive with lithium-ion for long-duration storage. But patents are held by only a few firms, mostly in China and Europe.

Challenge: Do you license, build your own tech, or leapfrog with local innovation? What R&D, skills, and investment shifts are required?

 

Scenario 5- Carbon Border Taxes Reshape Exports

The EU and U.S. now impose carbon tariffs on imported batteries with high upstream emissions. Asian manufacturers must prove full lifecycle carbon performance to remain competitive.

Challenge: Design a “green supply chain” strategy: how do you decarbonize your supply chain quickly and credibly to maintain export access?

 

Scenario 6

China has redirected 40% of its battery production to domestic use and Belt & Road markets, tightening exports to Southeast Asia. This has caused a regional BESS shortage and raised project costs.

Challenge: Can your region fill the gap? What manufacturing, storage, and policy strategies must be accelerated to reduce reliance on exported resources?